welcome new invites to my blog

google

saw a fabulous ad for

Abercrombie and Fitch, the perfect combo of : american, young, smug and indirectly very sexy.

Their brand scares me - it expresses the generation that is arrogant, doesn't speak to anyone out of a certain range of beauty, age and race. And they have been doing great - I've wanted to follow a fashion brand, but am aware that they are a more volotile stock - one day your in, and the next the masses have moved on to the next new in brand and no one can entirely understand why.

Also the fashion industry has high costs and is now dependent on imports

It would be hard for me to buy stocks without believing in their brand, also not having that identification or interest is dangerous, since one would not have a sense of when things were to shift.

stagnant stocks - I think I should sell

nay, face it, christine, you are not selling -

google is almost back to par - now WDC is way down, shoulda sold when I got the bad news - could buy it back later and make money!!

that is what I shoulda done , cause I caught the wave of selling out of fear was just beginning....
I personally do think that in the next 1.5 years hard drives will still make a killing - don't know enough about this new technoligy to tell if can really break through - hard drives are such a humongous market now!

perini, update from the directors

We closed 2007 with an exceptional fourth quarter with revenues of $1.2 billion, up 32% from a year ago and net income of $22.9 million, up 18% from a year ago. For the full year, we reported the highest revenues and net income in our 114-year history.
(they just ooze confidence and power and success - great PR, a bit scary)

Our work at the $1.8 billion Cosmopolitan Resort and Casino in Las Vegas continues unabated. The owner has advised us that they have entered into an agreement of principle with a new equity investor and are currently working on the necessary agreements. All current amounts due to us have been paid, and we have an interim agreement with Deutsche Bank for payments continuing on a monthly basis....
For the full year 2007, we were awarded $3.75 billion in new contracts

(ooops)Our civil segment incurred a lose of $13 million in 2007. This was primarily due to a charge we recorded for a pending civil settlement with the U.S. Attorney’s office in New York concerning the investigation regarding contracting with disadvantaged minority and women owned businesses.

Operating margin for the building segment was 3% in the fourth quarter, up from 2.5% in the fourth quarter of ‘06. Once again, we’ve realized significant profitability improvement in all of our building companies. (yikes -thats about the profit margin of a grocery store)

Looking at the full year, we generated revenues of $4.6 billion, up 52% from last year and at the high end of our guidance range of $4.4 billion to $4.6 billion. Net income was $97.1 million, up 134% from $41.5 million in 2006 and diluted earnings per share were $3.54 compared to $1.54 in 2006, exceeding our guidance of $3.30 to $3.45. (now, explain to me, why their stocks are down?)
Finally, we are affirming our initial guidance for 2008 revenues in the range of $5 billion to $5.4 billion and diluted earnings per share estimated to range from $3.50 to $3.75. Stockholders’ equity increased 51% to $368.3 million from $243.9 million in ‘06.

well, it seems investors are nervous about the loan situation and how it will affect perini's current and future projects. ALso about expendable income dropping, which would affect Las Vegas, where perini has multiple sites.

ITs 6:29PM and my stocks have crashed to the lowest ever

i'm down 3.64% overall - everthing lost except WOLF, which gained a smidgen -

Thursday4.01PM
i'm back up a bit - only down by 2.12% WFC is up $250 (on $2000), and the banks are up!
wolf is back down - I'm so ininspired by that stock,
WDC crashes and is now down by 6.88%, has everone abandoned hard drives?
teredyne still steady
per is also slowly dragging - haven't heard why, problably because they have contracts with companies that need loans

it's 8:58 AM and I am only down $63.13!!! bring out the champagne before the markets open!

• it's 12:37 PM and I am =down by 1.33% Western Digital drops a whopping 5%. Today it announces shipment of it newest 640GB hardrive - now that is something to get yourteath into! - but on monday CNN money announces that fash drives are getting much cheaper and are now replacing expensive hard drives - whoops, I'm on the wrong technological band wagon.
• google still sucks but I made back $150 of my $350 loss in their stock ( on only 4 stocks owned)
• teredyne is still winning
  

liquidity puts, CDO's and an attempt to understand the mortgage crisis

(with the help of David Leonardt, NYTimes 3.19)
“liquidity puts,” an obscure kind of financial contract, until they started causing big problems for Citigroup.

... global investors, flush with cash from Asia’s boom or rising oil prices, demanded good returns. Wall Street had an answer: subprime mortgages.

Because these loans go to people stretching to afford a house, they come with higher interest rates — even if they’re disguised by low initial rates — and thus higher returns. The mortgages were then sliced into pieces and bundled into investments, often known as collateralized debt obligations, or C.D.O.’s.... Once bundled, different types of mortgages could be sold to different groups of investors.

Investors then goosed their returns through leverage, the oldest strategy around. They made $100 million bets with only $1 million of their own money and $99 million in debt. If the value of the investment rose to just $101 million, the investors would double their money. Home buyers did the same thing, by putting little money down on new houses... The Fed under Alan Greenspan helped make it all possible, sharply reducing interest rates, to prevent a double-dip recession after the technology bust of 2000, and then keeping them low for several years.

my stocks update

Most commodities, with the exception of hogs, gold and nickel, fell on Monday

Specialists say their biggest worry now is not whether the economy is already or will soon be in a recession. Far more fundamental and troubling is the health of the financial system that greases the wheels of capitalism

“The Fed can do no good at all if they effectively print money and give it to the banks, and the banks dig a hole in the ground and put it in there,”“The Fed can do no good at all if they effectively print money and give it to the banks, and the banks dig a hole in the ground and put it in there,” (meaning: the banks need to give out loans with this money to make the plan work!)

New York Times, 3.18.08

They feel that a downturn has been averted for now. One of the biggest commodities brokers stock plunges 65%, many investors refuse to trade through them, some poor bloke loses 140M in unsecured wheat futures, which kinda tells us what really is going on out there in the trading world - doesn't it?! there are so many risky, leveraging, counter leveraging, buying on margin, etc tactics - a playground of real(?) money being toyed with. Will this crisis put a damper on some of this, or just up the ante?

The Hongkong, Shanghai and India market s all down by 5%, Japan up 1.5%

Where are all these people putting their money now$

The answer: buy gold! (it's now at record $1000 an ounce)

and it supposed to keep rising (reuters, evening news)
either that, or go sell grandma's jewlery

The DOW loses 25% of yesterdays gain

The DOW drops 25%.

Teredyne is still up 11% from when I purchased its stock (3.12), 10AM (3.13) it drops to a total of 8% gain as the stock drops 2.5% and I "lose" 50 bucks right there. I still haven't sold Google, I'm hovering with my choices - I could put it all in Teredyn, but as it is now also dropping.....

I recognize the feeling many stockholders must be having now: "I've got to do something! anything is better than just sitting here, watching my stocks shrink" So either one sells out stocks or one buys stocks that one thinks are overrated so on the long run you make out....

maybe Thom's strategy for buying a few shares in many companies and pigging out at their annual meetings is actually the one where you get the most bang for your buck! At least your having fun, getting drunk, hobnobbing with other stockholders, getting (wacky, or not so wacky) tips, traveling, learning about companies and marketing to investors (and I could bring home pens, pencils, pads, water bottles, all with logos to my kids... i wonder what the newest freebie fad is?

I would go intervnational, although they seem to be responding strongly to the Amenrican markets. My best plan is to get together with a bunch of people in t he class and buy real estate.Even though I think that homes will continue to drop in value for a bit , it would still be advantageous: a rental building.

US stocks soar 400%

oh gee, the banks set an 200Billion infusion from our government ( already trillions in debt) whopee! My stocks regained $245 in one day - how weird is that! and google regained $108. They bought "double-click for 3.1 Billion, the largest purchase in their history - (do they really need it that bad?) and their stock responds. The Wallstreet Journal says, it allows them to competein funkier ads: banners, etc. It could mean jobs here and internationally.

I wish I would approve of the measures taken, the newspaper are blathering about the banks now having cash to offer more loans! o, that's the absolute most ridiculous thing I've heard!

Teredyne had been the only stock that had gained up to now: 11%. Who would have known?

tips follow-up

research showed that Horizon was not a publicly traded stock


Saturn seemed the most exciting possibility, but

Western Digital and Perini - Solid!

Barron's Online announces positive news in the hard drive industry yesterday (WesternDigitalCorp)

--solid demand even in the Seasonally soft 1st quarter

--good mix and pricing strategies drive margins higher

--supply more closely aligned with demand

--discipline in capacity expansion

I am glad I bought WDC - it actually feels good to be investing in a product I like, marketing and customer service I respect! Computer safety is in my mind still a growing market (especially when I read about these geeks having 3 or 4 back up hard drives - external hard drives for photos and for movie collections). They a becoming the new zip drive.... I am still up $100 on their stock.
Google is up 1.3% this morning. Whoopee! Perini came out with their earning report - my god they are taking in $987,356,ooo in revenue, with 22,653,000 in profits. nice big fat numbers.
I am only down 30cents a share on them - It seems that there health is not the usual among the large construction companies. Perini secured 1 billion i new contracts in the 4th quarter adn another 520 mill since then - I sure would like to see these people at work writing proposals , wooing clients and closing deals!

About Art Tech Group

considering switching to Artg from google

Revenue for 2007 grew 33% to $137.1 M, in 2006, $103.2 M. At the end of 2007, ATG had $51.9 million in cash.......acquisitions, more acquisitions...."Bulgari shines" Here is the article, which shows me that they are creating a must-have product the most influential internet retailers use ( great strategy - get the leaders forst and others will want it too) Some of their customers;

AT&T, Best Buy, Bulgari, Coca Cola, Continental Airlines, CVS, Dell, Diane von Furstenberg, DirecTV, eLuxury, El Corte Ingles, Expedia, France Telecom, Harvard Business School Publishing, Hewlett-Packard, Hilton, HSBC, Intuit, Jenny Craig, Louis Vuitton, Macy's, Mercedes Benz, Meredith, Microsoft, Neiman Marcus, New York & Company, Nokia, NutriSystem, OfficeMax, PayPal, Philips, Procter & Gamble, Sears, Sony, Symantec, Target, T-Mobile, Tommy Hilfiger, Urban Outfitters, Verizon, Viacom, Vodafone and Walgreens.

small caps

Here is an article that looks at the past 8 years in a different light: It wasn't tech that was making the largest returns, but these finely selected small ( under 200M) companies. Their stocks grew 8,000% in the years 1996-2006. Mid-caps grew around 1,200%. I'm not surprised that they were obscure or around since 1930 and then shot up. They also did not grow into mega companies to achieve that return - showing that growth is not necessarily profit. (go teredyn, 7.05 profit margin on 1.1 B)
I remember reading an article on a invest circle who would only invest locally - they researched and even visited these companies and came out with an average annual gain of 25%. This is an investment strategy that attracts me.

investerpedia: One of the biggest advantages of investing in small-cap stocks is the opportunity to beat institutional investors. Because mutual funds have restrictions that limit them from buying large portions of any one issuer's outstanding shares, some mutual funds would not be able to give the small cap a meaningful position in the fund.

interesting! so these gems can stay under the radar longer!

The Market's 10 Best Stocks/ Motley Fool
By Tim Hanson (TMF Mmbop) March 2, 2006
10 top performers:

Company	Current Market Cap*	Return 1996-2005
Hansen Natural	$2,070	24,185%
Chico's	$8,480	17,600%
NVR	$4,660	7,150%
Christopher & Banks	$797	6,795%
Meritage Homes (NYSE: MTH)	$1,620	5,860%
American Eagle Outfitters	$3,830	4,850%
Comtech Telecommunications	$713	4,315%
SCP Pool (Nasdaq: POOL)	$2,270	4,090%
Engineered Support Systems**	N/A	3,800%
Jos. A. Bank	$771	3,790%
	Total Average Return	8,240%

*In millions.

There are more than a few things shocking about this list. First, these companies are obscure. Hansen Natural -- the greatest stock of the past decade -- has sold all-natural juices and sodas since the 1930s. Chico's sells clothes to women in their 30s, and 10 years ago it had fewer than 250 stores. SCP Pool -- a company with 45% annual returns -- wholesales swimming pool supplies and chemicals!

Second, there's only one "tech" firm on the list -- and it's not one of the famous ones. Only four analysts are currently following Comtech.

The greatest stocks of the past decade were:

1. Obscure.
2. Ignored.
3. Small.

Ten years ago, none of these companies had a heavy following from the pros on Wall Street. Even more incredibly, some still don't.

Finally, none of these companies was worth more than $200 million 10 years ago. After 10 years of incredible growth, seven of them are still small caps! Only Chico's, NVR, and American Eagle have moved comfortably into mid-cap status.

P/E ratio of my stocks and the concept

Today I'm researching P/E ratio, which according to investorpedia is:

market value per share/earnings per share

it usually takes the last 4 quarters into account and is susceptible to accounting manipulations.
It shows how much investors are willing to pay per $ of earnings; it is most valuable comparing earnings within industry groups. ( it make sense to me that each industry has different profit ranges and different earnings per share.)

So, here are my companies:

google: 35.44
perini 10.92
teradyne 28.62
pacific digital 9.85
wells fargo 12.27
gr.wolf resorts N/A

I had not been aware of the psychological aspect of price/earnings ratio! But here it is again - if many many investors think you a have great stock and are willing to buy, you have a nice plump ratio - of course earnings must be good. So that must mean that in years where a co. invests a lot, which may bring earnings down, and people keep your stock...let's see then it's high!

So if you don;t have high earnings and people still buy or hold your stock the P/E ratio looks good; If you however have high earnings, but nobody gives a damn, they don't buy or actually sell (maybe because they think you can't keep going up) then your P/E ration is low.

so google is either high expected growth or high expectations

teradyne: revenue: 1.1 B, gross profit 660M, approx 4 M shares
(quarterly growth-1%, quart. earnings growth 54%!)
possible growth stock

pacific digital: only 9.85; fair value, no hype around it now
perini same

great wolf: N/A could mean P/E is negative; they have been building 3 Lodges with Water parks
yepp: 22% revue growth, -5% profit

--------------------------

earnings per share is profit/shares; so 10 m/1m =1, 10m/100,000= 10

hmmm, same profit divided by more shares is less than that profit divided by more.....